Methodology
Public outage chatter, fused into one health state per cloud provider. No black boxes.
Health states
Evidence, not severityHealthy
No active intel.
Watching
One evidence class is murmuring — below the Signal bar. Never changes the headline.
Signal
Two or more independent evidence classes agree. No official notice yet.
Confirmed
The provider's own status page acknowledged it (or a regional blast radius).
A provider takes the worst state of its services. Resolved events drop to History.
Sources
Official + crowdOfficial
AWS / GCP / Azure status feeds. Authoritative — they confirm, but they lag.
Crowd
Reddit, Telegram, Hacker News. Noisy — but early.
Active sensors
official + crowdOfficial status pages
AWS, GCP, Azure, GitHub, Okta, Vercel, Cloudflare, OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek, Hugging Face — and more
r/aws, r/AZURE, r/googlecloud, r/OpenAI, r/github … plus cross-cutting ops/SRE subs
Telegram
public cloud-ops & SRE channels
Hacker News
outage-keyword search across the front page & new
How detection works
Agreement, not volumePer-cell baseline
Each (provider · service · region) cell keeps its own ~7-day rolling baseline of outage-mention volume — so a quiet service and a chatty one are judged on their own normal.
Anomaly as a z-score
A recency-decayed burst is scored against that cell's baseline. The z-score (e.g. +4.8σ) is how far above normal the chatter is right now.
Two independent classes
A Signal needs ≥2 independent evidence classes agreeing — Crowd, Dependency, Measurement, Official. One class alone, however loud, only reaches Watching.
Confirmation & lead time
An official status-page notice (or a multi-service blast radius) promotes to Confirmed. Lead time is the measured gap between an already-published Signal and the provider's own notice timestamp — and it is only shown when the Signal was live before the notice arrived. If we can't prove we were first, no lead is claimed.
Because the bar is agreement across independent sources, a single noisy spike never raises the headline — which is how 503Radar can be early without crying wolf.
Live view = last 12 hours; older events archive to History. Green means no current intel — not a guarantee. Beyond the active sensors above, we also scan best-effort corroboration inputs — Mastodon, tech press, dependency status pages, Cloudflare Radar — which sharpen detection but aren't counted as sensors.