503RADAR // HOW IT WORKS

Methodology

Public outage chatter, fused into one health state per cloud provider. No black boxes.

Health states

Evidence, not severity

STATE MODEL

○

Healthy

No active intel.

Watching

One evidence class is murmuring — below the Signal bar. Never changes the headline.

▲

Signal

Two or more independent evidence classes agree. Ahead of the official record.

●

Confirmed

The provider's own status page acknowledged it (or a regional blast radius).

A provider takes the worst state of its services. Resolved events drop to History.

Sources

Official + crowd

Official

AWS / GCP / Azure status feeds. Authoritative — they confirm, but they lag.

Crowd

Reddit, Telegram, Mastodon, tech press & HN. Noisy — but early.

Monitored sources

official + crowd · all keyless

Official status pages

AWS, GCP, Azure, GitHub, Okta, Vercel, Cloudflare, OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek, Hugging Face — and more

r/aws, r/AZURE, r/googlecloud, r/OpenAI, r/github … plus cross-cutting ops/SRE subs

public cloud-ops & SRE channels

Mastodon

public outage-keyword search and #tags

Tech press & HN

The Register, BleepingComputer, Ars Technica, Hacker News …

Dependency status pages

Datadog, MongoDB Atlas, Snowflake … (corroboration)

Cloudflare Radar

internet / BGP outage center

How detection works

Agreement, not volume

Per-cell baseline

Each (provider · service · region) cell keeps its own ~7-day rolling baseline of outage-mention volume — so a quiet service and a chatty one are judged on their own normal.

Anomaly as a z-score

A recency-decayed burst is scored against that cell's baseline. The z-score (e.g. +4.8σ) is how far above normal the chatter is right now.

Two independent classes

A Signal needs ≥2 independent evidence classes agreeing — Crowd, Dependency, Measurement, Official. One class alone, however loud, only reaches Watching.

Confirmation & lead time

An official status-page notice (or a multi-service blast radius) promotes to Confirmed. Lead time is the measured gap between our Signal and that official notice.

Because the bar is agreement across independent sources, a single noisy spike never raises the headline — which is how 503Radar stays ahead of the official record without crying wolf.

Live view = last 12 hours; older events archive to History. Green means no current intel — not a guarantee.